Your host has had a considerable bout of writer's block this week, but he has to get this in so that there's no doubt he said it before the event.
Last year, he correctly predicted that the San Diego Chargers would take Eli Manning with the first pick of the NFL draft. This doesn't count 100% in his favor, as he never could have dreamed they'd be devious enough to actually do it with the intent of forcing a trade. While Mark Liberman thinks that SC's skills as a talent evaluator are open to question, your host remains confident that even if he underestimates some players, one will never go broke betting on the Chargers making idiotic draft picks (2001 being a notable exception).
This year, with two first-round draft picks, and neither in the top 10, there are a lot of confounding factors involving who will be gone from the board. ESPN's Mel Kiper -- a man who gives thanks every day that nobody ever bothers to check the accuracy of his predictions -- believes that USC's Mike Williams will fall to the Chargers at #12. Nobody else is picking this, but your host believes Mr. Williams to be the most grossly overrated player in the draft, and this is his Ryan Leaf/Eli Manning-style nightmare scenario. Therefore, your host concurs with Mr. Kiper that this is the most probable outcome. If you remember the name R. Jay Soward -- and you probably don't -- then you might agree with SC on this point. Keyshawn Johnson might also go towards helping you believe SC's postulate of USC receivers: none of them is ever anywhere near as good as advertised.
Of course, many other gullible people believe that Mr. Williams will have a productive NFL career, and so SC's backup call is that the Chargers will overreach at one of the few positions they're actually well-stocked at, defensive lineman. No defensive lineman will improve the team's fortunes as much as a quality offensive left tackle. Some of ESPN's other experts would disagree with that claim, but in SC's view, the team's mediocre pass defense results from talent-free defensive backs, not poor line play. Therefore, if Mike Williams is not available, the team will pick a defensive lineman, and that person will not be considered one of the top 3 picks at the position. Your host's best guess is USC's Shaun Cody.
The team also picks at #28 in the first round, and at that point, the top pick at every position will be gone (except for kickers), and so will many more people in a few key positions. As indicated above, your host believes that they need a quality cornerback in the worst way, especially with the Raiders' acquisition of Randy Moss. Which virtually guarantees that they'll take someone, but only a someone who no draft commentator felt was a first-round pick. The ideal candidate will be under 6' tall, and have barely run a 4.5 time in the 40-yard dash. Stanford free safety Oshiomogho Atogwe (5'11", 4.52 seconds) fits the bill nicely. However, this would still be a semi-rational pick, as it would at least be a stab in the direction of a visible need. The Chargers also are under the delusion that they addressed this need by throwing too much money at Green Bay backup Bhawoh Jue (whose last name conveniently rhymes with "Who?"). Therefore, if the Chargers do not pick a defensive back, he fully expects them to take a tight end, since they only have a young Pro Bowl player at that position. On the other hand, that claim is almost too flippant to be believed, so we'll replace it with a slightly more plausible guess, that they end up with an outside linebacker (since they could use a middle linebacker much more, or better yet, the offensive tackle they didn't have the brains to pick the first time around).
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